Forex Wealth http://www.myfxwealth.com Consistency - Your Key to Success Sun, 29 May 2011 20:29:42 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 Is Europe about to implode http://www.myfxwealth.com/is-europe-about-to-implode/ http://www.myfxwealth.com/is-europe-about-to-implode/#comments Tue, 11 Jan 2011 09:00:39 +0000 admin http://www.myfxwealth.com/?p=2238 After dodging a bullet before the holidays, Europe’s peripheral nations are once again getting punished in the bond markets. The spreads between German government bonds and the peripheral nations are close to record highs. Portuguese 10-year government bond yields (up 70 basis points this week) are now at critical levels. The government in Lisbon has said that 7 per cent is the threshold at which it would need to consider taking a bailout. Currently yields are 7.11 per cent, so it seems only a matter of time before Portugal is negotiating with the ECB, EU and the IMF and receiving funds.

Another worrying development is Belgium. Although it isn’t a core economy, it wasn’t considered a basket case either. Back in August its 10-year bond yield fell to 2.8 per cent, yet it is now above 4 per cent and has risen in line with other peripheral nations. So will the home of the European Union be forced to negotiate a bailout for itself in the coming months?

There are three main reasons that investors have targeted the peripheral nations bonds with such gusto since the start of this year. The first is a wave of supply that is about to come onto the market. On 12 January Portugal will offer 2014 and 2020 bonds for auction, Italy and Spain are also holding auctions at the latter part of next week. Investors charged a hefty premium to hold short-term Portuguese bonds in an auction last week, which doesn’t bode well for the upcoming debt sales. The news that the world’s largest bond fund will not be participating in the upcoming bond auctions is another red flag in our opinion as it points towards a buyers strike. If Portugal and Europe’s other weak nations have to pay a higher yield to attract investors to purchase their debt, soon people will worry about the impact higher debt payments will have on growth, causing more investors to ditch their debt and yields to rise and so on. This seems like the start of a debt spiral to us. Next week could see some real fireworks, and bond spreads are close to breaking fresh Euro-era highs.

Belgium’s problems are actually more political. It is currently without a full-time government and seven political parties are locked in discussions trying to form a government and overcome the political impasse. This is bad timing to have political meltdown as Belgium is finding out. Investors aren’t in the mood to suffer risks within the Eurozone easily and until a fulltime government is found it is unlikely there will be a let-up in the pressure on Belgium’s bonds.

Another factor weighing on sentiment toward the periphery is the European Commission’s plans to overhaul the governance of Europe’s banking sector. One of the proposals is to give regulators the power to write down senior bank debt by any amount necessary, or to convert bank debt into equity if a bank were to get into trouble. Until the risks to the investor are set in stone, European debt is an unattractive asset to hold.

The sovereign debt crisis in Europe appears to be spilling over to the euro. EURUSD is currently below 1.3000, and if the sovereign debt crisis is poised to get worse then it will be hard to muster up much enthusiasm for a stronger euro and we could see a continuing grind lower in the single currency. A convincing break below 1.2960/65 could herald losses toward 1.2900 then 1.2650 – the lows reached back in October. But the decline may not be in a straight line due to continuing demand for the single currency from Asian central banks that want to diversify away from the dollar.

]]> http://www.myfxwealth.com/is-europe-about-to-implode/feed/ 0 FACTBOX-Summing up previous G20 summits http://www.myfxwealth.com/factbox-summing-up-previous-g20-summits/ http://www.myfxwealth.com/factbox-summing-up-previous-g20-summits/#comments Thu, 11 Nov 2010 10:19:13 +0000 admin http://www.myfxwealth.com/factbox-summing-up-previous-g20-summits/

Nov 10 (Reuters) – Deputies drafting a final statement to be released after the two-day Group of 20 summit ends on Friday remained far apart on Wednesday on key issues including currency exchange rates, G20 spokesman Kim Yoon Kyung said.

The following are excerpts on various topics from G20 statements since November 2009:

GLOBAL ECONOMY:

* Gyeongju, South Korea, Oct. 22-23, 2010

"The global economic recovery continues to advance, albeit in a fragile and uneven way. Growth has been strong in many emerging market economies, but the pace of activity remains modest in many advanced economies. Downside risks remain and are different from country to country and region to region."

* Toronto, Canada, June 26-27, 2010

Unprecedented and globally coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus is playing a major role in helping to restore private demand and lending. But serious challenges remain. While growth is returning, the recovery is uneven and fragile.

* Busan, South Korea, June 5, 2010

"The global economy continues to recover faster than anticipated, although at an uneven pace across countries and regions. However, the recent volatility in financial markets reminds us that significant challenges remain and underscores the importance of international cooperation."

* Washington D.C., United States, April 23, 2010

"The global recovery has progressed better than previously anticipated largely due to the G20′s unprecedented and concerted policy effort."

* St. Andrews, Scotland, Nov. 7, 2010

Economic and financial conditions have improved following our coordinated response to the crisis. However, the recovery is uneven and remains dependent on policy support, and high unemployment is a major concern.

GLOBAL IMBALANCES, EXCHANGE RATES:

* Gyeongju, South Korea, Oct. 22-23, 2010

"We will move towards more market determined exchange rate systems that reflect underlying economic fundamentals and refrain from competitive devaluation of currencies. Advanced economies, including those with reserve currencies, will be vigilant against excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates.

 

"We will strengthen multilateral cooperation to promote external sustainability and pursue the full range of policies conducive to reducing excessive imbalances and maintaining current account imbalances at sustainable levels."

* Toronto, Canada, June 26-27, 2010

"We have successfully maintained our strong commitment to resist protectionism.

"Advanced deficit countries should take actions to boost national savings while maintaining open markets and enhancing export competitiveness. Surplus economies will undertake reforms to reduce their reliance on external demand and focus more on domestic sources of growth."

* Busan, South Korea, June 5, 2010

"Within their capacity, countries will expand domestic sources of growth, while maintaining macroeconomic stability. This will help ensure ongoing recovery."

* Washington D.C., United States, April 23, 2010

"Countries which have the capacity should expand domestic sources of growth. This would help cushion a decline in demand from countries that should boost savings and reduce fiscal deficits."

* St. Andrews, Scotland, Nov. 7, 2009

"We agreed to cooperate and coordinate, taking into account any spillovers caused by our strategies, and consulting and sharing information where possible. To ensure credibility, our plans will be based on prudent assumptions and communicated promptly and transparently."

FINANCIAL REGULATION

* Gyeongju, South Korea, Oct. 22-23, 2010

"We…welcome and commit to fully implement within the agreed timeframe the new bank capital and liquidity framework drawn up by the Basel Committee and the Governors and Heads Of Supervision."

* Toronto, Canada, June 26-27, 2010

"We support reaching agreement at the time of the Seoul Summit on the new capital framework. We agreed that all members will adopt the new standards and these will be phased in over a timeframe that is consistent with sustained recovery and limits market disruption, with the aim of implementation by end-2012."

 

SEOUL | Tue Nov 9, 2010 10:27pm EST

"It is critical that our banking regulators develop capital and liquidity rules of sufficient rigour to allow our financial firms to withstand future downturns in the global financial system. As we agreed, these rules will be phased in as financial conditions improve and economic recovery is assured, with the aim of implementation by end-2012."

IMF REFORM:

* Gyeongju, South Korea, Oct. 22-23, 2010

"We have reached agreement on an ambitious set of proposals to reform the IMF’s quota and governance… Key elements include: shifts in quota shares to dynamic EMDCs (economically more developed countries) and to under-represented countries of over 6 percent, while protecting the voting share of the poorest, which we commit to work to complete by the Annual Meetings in 2012. A doubling of quotas, with a corresponding roll-back of the NAB preserving relative shares, when the quota increase becomes effective."

* Toronto, Canada, June 26-27, 2010

"We have endorsed the important voice reforms agreed by shareholders at the World Bank, which will increase the voting power of developing and transition countries by 4.59 percent since 2008. We underscore our resolve to ensure ratification of the 2008 IMF Quota and Voice Reforms and expansion of the New Arrangements to Borrow."

* Busan, South Korea, June 5, 2010

"We welcomed the agreement on the World Bank’s voice reform to increase the voting power of developing and transition countries by 3.13 percent."

* Washington D.C., April 23, 2010

"We urged the IMF to deliver the quota and governance reforms by the November Seoul Summit."

* St. Andrews, Scotland, Nov. 7, 2009

"We reaffirmed our commitment to: deliver the representation and governance reforms agreed in Pittsburgh and reiterated the deadlines of the 2010 Spring Meetings for the World Bank and January 2011 for the IMF."

(Reporting by Vidya Ranganathan; Editing by Nick Macfie)

]]> http://www.myfxwealth.com/factbox-summing-up-previous-g20-summits/feed/ 0 Bernanke’s high stakes poker game at the G-20 http://www.myfxwealth.com/bernankes-high-stakes-poker-game-at-the-g-20/ http://www.myfxwealth.com/bernankes-high-stakes-poker-game-at-the-g-20/#comments Thu, 11 Nov 2010 10:13:11 +0000 admin http://www.myfxwealth.com/bernankes-high-stakes-poker-game-at-the-g-20/

Ben Bernanke is about to play the biggest poker hand in global monetary policy history: The Federal Reserve chairman is trying to force China to fold on its fixed dollar-yuan currency peg. This is high-stakes poker.

Although Bernanke will not be sitting at the table to play his quantitative easing card when all the members of the G-20, including China, meet this week in South Korea. Every G-20 country is suffering from an already grossly under-valued yuan pegged to a dollar now falling rapidly under the weight of Bernanke’s QE2. In fact, breaking the highly corrosive dollar-yuan peg is the most important step the G-20 can take for both robust global economic recovery and financial market stability.

Regrettably, China continues to believe — mistakenly — that the costs of a stronger yuan in terms of reduced export-led growth outweigh three major benefits: increased purchasing power to spur domestic-driven growth, significantly lower costs for raw materials and energy, and a dramatic reduction in speculative hot flows rapidly pushing up inflation.

Of course, the biggest victim of the peg is the U.S which can never eliminate its huge trade deficit with China through currency adjustments. The resultant chronic trade imbalance shaves almost 1% from America’s annual GDP growth rate and costs almost 1 million jobs a year.

Europe, with the notable exception of Germany, suffers a similar problem because of a euro overvalued relative to the yuan. Moreover, as the dollar-yuan pair declines under the weight of QE2, the risk of recession in Europe rises.
For its part, Germany largely avoids the peg’s damage through robust exports to China. In addition, Germany’s higher savings rate coupled with vaunted cost efficiencies have allowed it to gain at the expense of other more free-spending countries of the euro zone. Politically, this spells trouble because Germany’s separation from the euro zone pack makes it the one country most likely to align with China.

In sharp contrast, Japan has been brought to its knees by China’s fixed peg. Every time the U.S. dollar declines in value and pulls the yuan down with it, Japan (as well as fellow G-20 members South Korea and India) lose more jobs and growth to China. As a further injury, China has aggressively pushed up the yen up through massive interventions in the Japanese market.

The commodity-rich G-20 members — Australia, Canada, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa — suffer quite a different fate. All are now fighting speculative hot flows, rapidly rising currencies, and the loss of export advantage. The reason: As the dollar-yuan pair falls and commodity prices rise, global speculators are capitalizing on a new, emerging “carry trade” by borrowing at near zero interest rates from the U.S. and then investing abroad in commodities.

This long laundry list of G-20 victims brings us back to the perilous poker game the U.S. Federal Reserve is playing. In fact, the refusal of China to allow its currency to strengthen coupled with the failure of President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to negotiate Chinese currency reform has forced Bernanke to make his own play. The question, of course, at this G-20 meeting is whether China will get the message.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle to G-20 success is the mixed message that American policymakers are sending. While Bernanke is clearly signaling the yuan must float, Geithner has decided to tilt at a particularly peculiar windmill: Rather than demand a free market floating of the yuan, Geithner wants trade surplus limits. Such limits are, however, not only economically impractical, which is why most G-20 members have rejected them. Geithner’s own gambit is political suicide because it pushes the Germans right into the Chinese camp.

If Bernanke’s gamble fails and the G-20 reaches no rapprochement on the Chinese currency question, the eventual cost may not just be a global currency war. It will likely be a bout of hyperinflation, the likes of which the U.S., and the world, hasn’t seen in almost a century.

Peter Navarro, a business professor at the University of California-Irvine, is co-author of “Seeds of Destruction.”
]]> http://www.myfxwealth.com/bernankes-high-stakes-poker-game-at-the-g-20/feed/ 0 Trades 10 November 2010 + 110 pips http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-10-november-2010-110-pips/ http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-10-november-2010-110-pips/#comments Wed, 10 Nov 2010 12:40:36 +0000 admin http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-10-november-2010-110-pips/  

stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 8:37:29 AM): buy eurusd now
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 8:38:38 AM): 1.3777 stop at 1.3729

 

stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 8:46:22 AM): eurusd trade  stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 8:52:47 AM): 4 hr analysis on eurusd

stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 8:55:51 AM): EJ is also moving up nicely but i like the setup on eu better as there seems to be a solid support level
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 9:05:59 AM): gbp really selling off right now, usd seems to be gaining some strength. i still think the eu long is a good trade
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 9:24:52 AM): differential between eur and usd strength above 300 which is the trigger i like to look at for trading opportunities http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1289373823-clip-116kb.jpg
Start Photo Sharing
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 9:28:45 AM): im keeping my stop at 1.3729 which is a 48 pip stop im expecting an up and down move but if it can stay above this level we should see further gains
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 9:41:10 AM): pay careful attention to BOE inflation report and GOV king speaking at 10.30 am GMT could see huge moves in GBP and 1.30 pm GMT trade balance and unemployment claims in the US http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1289374752-clip-104kb.jpg
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:10:00 PM): you should be up over 30 pips now on my trade call on eurusd long this morning. im holding this position for now you can move your stop up to 1.3755 so only 22 pips risk
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:20:35 PM): BOE inflation report out in 10 min beware if you are in and GBP positions. we could see sparks fly
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:31:13 PM): Wednesday, November 10, 2010 12:30:18
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND QUARTERLY INFLATION REPORT: READY TO MOVE IN EITHER DIRECTION
- 2011 GDP % v 2.5% aug forecast
- 2012 GDP % v 3.0% Aug forecast
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:32:44 PM): *(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND QUARTERLY INFLATION REPORT: READY TO MOVE IN EITHER DIRECTION AS RISKS EVOLVE (REITERATES)
- 2011 GDP % v 2.5% aug forecast
- 2012 GDP % v 3.0% Aug forecast

- Inflation rate to rise further in near term; risk to inflation forecast are to the upside
- Near term inflation forecast higher than in Aug
- Inflation rate to remain above target through 2011
- Inflation to fall below 2% target in early 2012
- Notes a wider than usual range of views on inflation outlook.
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:32:57 PM): uncle merv ready to speak
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:34:41 PM): looks like gbp is going to head up further
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:38:08 PM): GY shot up nicely 50 pips
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:38:55 PM): eu position doesnt look great close
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:39:53 PM): Wednesday, November 10, 2010 12:34:56
(UK) UK BoE gov King: UK recovery is dependend on the world economy; Output level like to remain weak
- Difficult to judge inflation outlook.
- Commodity prices and weak sterling to push up near term CPI.
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:41:32 PM): well gu has gone up nicely
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:42:05 PM): GY went up over 60 pips
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:50:36 PM): here is the GY chart 1 min chart prior to BOE inflation report

stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:55:13 PM): current dashboard view

  stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 12:57:40 PM): so all in all not bad if you managed your trading well you should have made at least 20 pips on eu long and a further 30 + on GU or Gy long market retraced nicely for you to get in
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 1:02:40 PM): so if you paid attention today you should be up around 50 pips not a a bad day
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 1:05:02 PM): quick update im speaking to 4xp.com to look at integrating into their platform
stephen nefdt (11/10/2010 1:34:53 PM): here is a 1 min trade plan for GY using the dashboard and trendvol indicator for over 90 pips

]]> http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-10-november-2010-110-pips/feed/ 0 Trades 3 to 5 November 2010 + 594 pips http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-3-to-5-november-2010-594-pips/ http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-3-to-5-november-2010-594-pips/#comments Fri, 05 Nov 2010 16:14:55 +0000 admin http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-3-to-5-november-2010-594-pips/ Did you catch any of these recent trades that the Dashboard and Trendvol indicator gave alerts on

3 November eurjpy + 115 pips http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288955979-clip-88kb.jpg

3 November gbpjpy +152 pips http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288956317-clip-81kb.jpg

4 November eurjpy + 105 pips http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288955804-clip-86kb.jpg

4 November eurusd  +107 pips http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288956164-clip-68kb.jpg

5 November gbpjpy  +55 pips http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288956528-clip-81kb.jpg

5 November gbpjpy  +60 pips http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288956648-clip-83kb.jpg

Total of 594 pips in 3 days trading !!

If you aren’t picking up any of these trades please contact me and I will gladly assist you with a live one on one session on Netviewer where I will  show you how to use the Dashboard correlator and associated indicators effectively so you can zone in on these profits

NB !! the new version of the dashboard correlator can be downloaded here  http://www.myfxwealth.com/dashboard-download/dashboard-correlator-v1-3-download/

I am live most days on yahoo messenger my ID is forex_wealth1 or you can email me

]]> http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-3-to-5-november-2010-594-pips/feed/ 0 Trades 28 October 2010 + 97 pips http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-28-october-2010-97-pips/ http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-28-october-2010-97-pips/#comments Thu, 28 Oct 2010 10:49:44 +0000 admin http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-28-october-2010-97-pips/ image

 

stephen nefdt (10/28/2010 12:06:25 PM): here is the setup for GY today for around 97 pips http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288259852-clip-83kb.jpg all these rules are in my training videos on my site www.myfxwealth.com/training

stephen nefdt (10/28/2010 12:15:56 PM): here is what the dashboard looked like when i gave the trade alert http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288260761-clip-134kb.jpg the move was showing signs of developing into a breakout

stephen nefdt (10/28/2010 12:19:16 PM): 5 min before london open http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288261126-clip-111kb.jpg

stephen nefdt (10/28/2010 12:24:22 PM): london open check the volatility on dashboard http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288261427-clip-121kb.jpg
 

stephen nefdt (10/28/2010 12:33:51 PM): 10 min into london session http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288261987-clip-119kb.jpg

stephen nefdt (10/28/2010 12:40:53 PM): at 8:47 london time i get an alert that trend is changing on my gbpjpy chart as well as an indication that gbp is showing some strength and jpy weakening some http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1288262349-clip-126kb.jpg

stephen nefdt (10/28/2010 12:44:04 PM): as i have mentioned before these trades are there for the taking each and every day just be patient and watch for the signs around these market opens. for those of you that have been with me over the past 1 to 2 years will confirm what im saying

]]> http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-28-october-2010-97-pips/feed/ 0 What to look for when selecting a trading System http://www.myfxwealth.com/what-to-look-for-when-selecting-a-trading-system/ http://www.myfxwealth.com/what-to-look-for-when-selecting-a-trading-system/#comments Tue, 26 Oct 2010 09:50:55 +0000 admin http://www.myfxwealth.com/what-to-look-for-when-selecting-a-trading-system/ A sad (but typical) story  (written by Matthew Klein of Collective 2)

“Dear Matthew: I lost money when I traded System X. But I’ve learned a valuable lesson. I’ll never do that again!”

He concluded his letter by saying:
“And now I’m going to start trading System Y instead. It has been performing great recently.”
Before I replied to my correspondent, I did a little research. I looked first at the initial system he chose – System X – a system that seemed to start off great, but eventually cratered, after placing a huge bet on the direction of the Euro currency that didn’t work out.
Next, I looked at System Y. This was the trading system that my customer chose after learning his valuable lesson. Alas, what I saw in System Y was not very encouraging. I saw the same characteristics that System X demonstrated before it collapsed: a series of beautiful, profitable trades; a sexy rising equity curve… and also a growing number of huge gambles that, so far, had paid off and been profitable.
But of course you know how the story ends, don’t you?
How the story ends
Let me show you the end of the story, using pictures.
First, here’s a picture of Trading System Y – remember, that’s the new system, which my customer chose after learning his valuable lesson. This picture shows what System Y looked like at the time the customer wrote me.

Now let me show you a picture of the system a few weeks later.

Why you should not fall for a beautiful picture
The customer made a foolish mistake when he chose system Y. He forgot the key rule of trading:

There is no such thing as a free lunch.

What’s that? You don’t remember that rule from all your trading e-books and seminars and webinars? Then let me put it in more familiar terms:

You can’t make money without risk.

Ah, that’s better. Whichever way you remember the rule, the point is the same. There is no such thing as a system that makes money without risk. If there were such a system, then I assure you it would not be offered on my rinky-dink web site – not for any price – and certainly not for $99 month, with a 14-day free trial. No, sir – such a system would be locked away, hidden deep underground, in a lead-lined chamber, protected by laser tripwires, and ringed by anti-personnel mines.

So if you see a system that looks too good to be true, then I assure you it is too good to be true.


Trading Systems = Risk
If you accept my rule about trading systems (You can’t make money without risk) then two corollaries flow from it:

If you see that a trading system is making money, it is taking risk.
and
If you see that a trading system is making a lot of money,
it is taking a lot of risk.1

These rules apply to all trading systems – whether the risk is visible to you, or not. What do I mean when I talk about risk being “visible” or not?

But not all risk is visible

But here’s the problem. Not all risk is visible. Even though Collective2 makes an effort to show a trading system’s risk, we can be wrong. Indeed, we can entirely miss the mark and not see the risks that are inherent in a trading system.
Let me give you an example.

An amazing system that never lost money in 30 years


Imagine that I tell you that I have found an amazing “system” that makes money, year after year. Sure – I admit – every now and then, it has a losing month or two, but overall, it generates steady returns every year. How steady? Well, I’ve been running the system for thirty years, and during that time, it never lost money overall in a single year.
Sound like a great system? Well, it was. It was called the U.S. housing market. And if you were a financial go-getter in the early 2000′s, you would have thought that buying mortgage-backed securities was a great strategy, because the underlying asset guaranteeing those securities (U.S. residential real estate) never substantially declined on a national basis – not since records started being kept three decades earlier.
A great system for about thirty years;
Until… well, until it wasn’t such a great system.
My point here isn’t to say, “The U.S. housing crisis was obvious.” It surely wasn’t – not to me, not to government officials, not to economists. My point is to say that – because people couldn’t see any risk – they assumed there was none.

Beautiful systems hide dark secrets

Instead of trying to figure out each system’s risk – whether it is high or low – what if we just start with the simple assumption that all trading systems are risky? What if we begin our analysis by stating the obvious: that there is no such thing as a free lunch. To put it another way, what if we admit the dirty secret or trading: that if you want to make money trading, you need to lose money sometimes.

It is my theory (and it’s only a theory, mind you – I’m no expert, and I could be wrong) that the trading systems that look the most beautiful are actually the most dangerous. This is another example of the “there is no such thing as a free lunch” rule. A system that looks great, without any losses, must surely be taking large risks.
On the other hand, an ugly system that makes decent money, but also sometimes loses money, might be exactly what it seems. That is to say: it might be a reasonable trading system that wears its risks on its sleeve.
Under this theory, if you see a trading system that looks beautiful, it isn’t because there are no risks. It is because the risk is hidden from you.
That’s why I recommend ignoring the beautiful trading systems, and sticking with the ugly ones instead.

A very well written account of what to look for in  system.

The Dashboard doesnt profess to be the best system and have no losses and an ultra smooth equity curve, but it is consistent and has a really good win/loss ratio with high probability trades and low draw downs

remember if its too good to be true ie 100% gains per month believe me it is too good too be true run a mile !!!

Give us a try you wont be disappointed register for a free trial www.myfxwealth.com click on free trial button

]]> http://www.myfxwealth.com/what-to-look-for-when-selecting-a-trading-system/feed/ 0 Trades 18 October 2010 http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-18-october-2010/ http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-18-october-2010/#comments Mon, 18 Oct 2010 10:49:25 +0000 admin http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-18-october-2010/ Total Pips +270 pips

GBPUSD + 80 pips

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EURJPY + 76 PIPS

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GBPJPY +114 PIPS

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00:45 GMT +2 Dashboard

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05:05 GMT +2 Dashboard

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05:45 GMT +2 Dashboard

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08:30 GMT +2 Dashboard

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]]> http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-18-october-2010/feed/ 0 Trades 15 October 2010 http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-15-october-2010/ http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-15-october-2010/#comments Fri, 15 Oct 2010 08:33:22 +0000 admin http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-15-october-2010/ A Trade Setup on EURUSD short and then a turn around to go long for an easy 62 pips

Take Note of the corresponding Dashboard Volatility numbers that assist you in making your trading decisions

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]]> http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-15-october-2010/feed/ 0 Trades 18 Aug 2010 + 80 pips http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-18-aug-2010-80-pips/ http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-18-aug-2010-80-pips/#comments Wed, 18 Aug 2010 13:29:04 +0000 admin http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-18-aug-2010-80-pips/ + 80 pips GBPJPY (MPC Minutes) Live trade taken


The new Forex Dashboard interface

Live Trading on yahoo IM

stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 09:09:35 AM): GY looks like its gaining strength after much weakness im thinking a long on GY or GU at current levels 132.70 with a stop at 132.40
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 09:12:32 AM): ok im in at 132.77 on GY long
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 09:12:58 AM): stop at 132.35
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 09:29:59 AM): gbp gaining strength on small time frames as usd and jpy weaken simultaneously
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 09:39:41 AM): from historical strength graphs its clear GBP and EUR have remained weak while the JPY has remained strong. however we could see some turnaround at these levels http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1282117072-clip-14kb.png

stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 09:40:26 AM): the issue we have is the MPC minutes in 50 min that should move the GBP
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 09:45:05 AM): stocks are down which is effecting the jpy strength right now, but the move im sure will come in 45 min if you are in on the gy long keep your stop , if you see a sudden spike down close
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 09:54:09 AM): The spotlight this week will be placed on the Bank of England Minutes after consumer prices in the U.K. remained stubbornly above the government’s target of 2.0 percent. As of late, consumer prices slowed to 3.1 percent in July from 3.2 percent the month prior, and Governor Mervyn King noted that inflation will likely be above 2 percent until the end of next year; however, the medium term view is prices below 2 percent. While Andrew Sentance is likely to dissent against the majority and call for a rate hike for the third successive month, market participants will closely monitor the banks longer term assessment of consumer prices.

stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 09:56:42 AM): All in all, if traders witness that the decision to keep rates unchanged at 0.50 percent and the asset purchase program was skewed to the right more than the previous decision, the British Pound will likely rally going into the North American trade.

stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:09:07 AM): current view of short term strengths eur appreciating, GBP flat, JPY and usd no real movement  http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1282118873-clip-30kb.png
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stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:12:57 AM): as you can see in the new dashboard you can see precisely how the strengths / weaknesses progression on multi time frames so you get a total picture across, currencies, commodities and stocks
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:14:52 AM): major spike in strength on GBP
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:17:25 AM): im seeing usd weaken substantially, jpy lower too
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:17:57 AM): im going to bring stop up to 132.50
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:19:48 AM): so my risk is only 27 pips now. ill hold into report if it takes me out hopefully i dont get slipped too badly. if you are conservative rather close entirely
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:22:57 AM): be careful not to tighten ur stop too much prior to news reports as spreads widen and you could be taken out by default, keep stops to around 20 to 30 pips

stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:30:27 AM): (UK) BOE VOTED 8-1 TO LEAVE INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.50%
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:31:59 AM): slightly more hawkish tone
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:32:20 AM): GBP spiked nicely
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:32:49 AM): (UK) BOE VOTES UNANIMOUS TO MAINTAIN ASSET PURCHASE TARGET (APT) AT £200B
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:33:35 AM): pickup in growth and high inflation suggest that tightening required
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:34:43 AM): my take on this is we will see GBP gain throughout today
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:35:18 AM): obviously if you get in you need to place wider stops im in and staying in for a while
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:36:06 AM): so this was a good trade a risk of around 27 pips on GY is nothing
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:36:44 AM): up over 50 pips now

stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:52:42 AM): here is the strength history prior to MPC minutes
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:52:58 AM): http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1282121521-clip-22kb.png
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stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 10:57:53 AM): the better trade was actually on gbpusd as usd weakened more prior to MPC but hey you cant win them all. current picture on lower time frames 1 to 5 min http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1282121846-clip-29kb.png
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stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 11:07:18 AM): 4hr analysis on GY http://clip2net.com/clip/m31553/1282122387-clip-22kb.png
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stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 11:12:34 AM): as always there are many ways you can manage your trade. one way move your stop to BE on this trade so you can lose. or close 1/2 or 2/3 and let the rest run with stop at BE and move stop as it moves in your favour. conservative trade will follow that line. the choice is yours
stephen nefdt (2010/08/18 11:36:30 AM): you could look at taking profit around the 133.80 level. depending on how you are playing this. ie if you have taken 1/3 already then another 1/3 at 133.80 and last 1/3 at 134.60 ]]> http://www.myfxwealth.com/trades-18-aug-2010-80-pips/feed/ 0