Trades 5 March 2010 +180 pips

+ 180 pips worth of trade calls

Market Bias

If NFP jobs come out above expectations we should see Stock Markets gain and possibly JPY weakening . The USD will be more tricky as any good news out of US could be seen to pre-empt more easing in the Exit strategy re : monetary policy and raising Fed Funds rate later this year.

Currencies to trade on NFP results

NFP comes in above expectation

Buy : AUDJPY

BUY : EURJPY

NFP comes in below expectation

Sell : GBPJPY

Sell : GBPUSD

Sell : EURUSD

Sell : EURJPY

Greece debt update

(3/5/2010 10:47:53 AM): breaking news : no money from Germany for Greece , each country has to take care of its own affairs.

A senior Greek official says his country needs a strong expression of solidarity from Germany and other European nations but stresses that Athens isn’t seeking direct financial aid. Greece believes it can “master this crisis alone.”

Greece expects from Germany and others “a clear expression of solidarity and confidence” toward Papandreou’s government and its austerity plan.However, he said the Greek government “at no time” asked for direct financial support from Germany or others in the European Union.

March 5 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet pressed Greece to halt its flirtation with International Monetary Fund aid and work with European allies to tame its record budget deficit.

As protesters besieged the Greek Finance Ministry to denounce 4.8 billion euros ($6.5 billion) of tax increases and spending cuts, the Athens government said the absence of European support might force it into the hands of the IMF.

Trichet yesterday spoke out against appealing to the Washington-based lender “as a supplier of help,” keeping the pressure on Greece to cut the highest deficit in the euro’s 11- year history — and on European governments to step in if Greece can’t go it alone. “For Trichet, using the IMF would be an admission that Europe can’t deal with its own business,

Greece bought time yesterday by selling 10-year bonds with investors bidding for more than three times the 5 billion euros it sought to raise. The goal was to avoid a repeat of a five- year note sale in January, when the debt tumbled on the first day of trading. Greece faces more than 20 billion euros in debt redemptions in April and May.

Weaker YEN

The yen dropped on speculation the Bank of Japan will discuss ways to lower short-term rates at its two-day meeting starting March 16, the Nikkei newspaper said today

“Given the fact that the BOJ is already running far behind other central banks in exit strategies and prospects that interest rates here will remain low, the yen-carry trade may become popular again,”

USD

March 5 (Bloomberg) — Two regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, speaking before today’s release of a February report on U.S. jobs, said they believe the central bank should keep rates low until the recovery picks up.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters in Chicago yesterday he needs to see signs of “highly sustainable” growth before supporting steps toward tighter monetary policy.

The district bank chiefs’ views echo the Federal Open Market Committee pledge to keep interest rates near zero for an “extended period.” Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week the U.S. economy is in a “nascent” recovery that still requires low interest rates to spur demand by consumers and businesses once federal stimulus wanes.

The Labor Department is likely to report that payrolls declined by 68,000 last month after falling by 20,000 in January, according to the median estimate of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The unemployment rate, in the first increase since October, probably rose to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent the previous month.

Snowstorms in the Eastern U.S. last month may have contributed to the decline in payrolls, Bullard said.

The U.S. has lost 8.4 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007, the most of any slowdown in the post-World War II era.

An index of agreements to buy previously owned homes unexpectedly dropped 7.6 percent in January, the National Association of Realtors said in Washington yesterday. The drop adds to evidence the housing market is struggling to rebound after reports last week showed unexpected declines in purchases of new and existing homes.

The central bank is likely to start raising the benchmark federal funds rate from a record low of zero to 0.25 percent during the fourth quarter of this year, according to the forecast of economists. The rate for overnight loans among banks will probably be raised to 0.75 percent by the end of the year, the survey shows.

Projected Movement before NFP